LAS CRUCES - It may sound like a contradiction, but it's not: New Mexico pecan growers are in for a bumper, light crop year.
Pecan trees across the country cycle between a heavy crop one year and a light crop the next. And though this year is a light or "off" year, it's going to be bigger than usual, according to forecasts so far.
Hatch pecan grower Donald Archer said he's seeing what could turn into a heavy yield in orchards that weren't hurt by a freeze in late spring.
"Here in town, the trees are very heavy," he said. "But others will be off about 30 percent - the ones that got frosted."
A recent industry forecast predicted that New Mexico will produce about 57 million pounds in 2010. Were that to materialize, it would be up significantly from 47 million in 2006 and 43 million in 2008 - in-shell production for the most-recent "off" season years.
Archer said his trees seem to have benefited from a late-season application of fertilizer. He said he's started applying smaller amounts of fertilizer more frequently than he once did, which is improving production from year to year.
A bumper crop could be good news for pecan shoppers, but the price we'll ultimately see at the supermarket will be determined by a number of factors, including an emerging foreign market
Phillip Arnold, a Las Cruces pecan farmer and buyer, too, said he's expecting a larger-than-usual "off" year crop in New Mexico. Several factors are behind it, including that trees planted in
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previous years are beginning to mature, and a gradual change in how farmers are managing orchards. He said growers have been doing a good job of pruning trees before heavy crop years, which helps conserves the tree's energy for future "off" years. That makes the differences between years smaller.
"Our production in an 'off' year is continuing to rise up slightly," he said.
Plus, Arnold has noted that trees in the eastern part of the state are likely to produce more pounds than usual because of frost damage last year.
While production may be greater than in years past, Arnold said he's doubtful it will quite reach the mid-50 million mark that the industry has forecast so far. Still, he said, the low 50 million level is possible.
Nationwide, the forecast - released last month by the Texas Pecan Growers Association - predicted about 292 million in-shell pounds to be harvested, up from 207 million produced in 2006 and 194 million in 2008.
While a bumper year may be in the forecast, Les Fletcher, who farms pecans north of Las Cruces, said he's not expecting it on his own orchard, and "I don't think it's going to be the case in the Mesilla Valley." Fletcher said a lack of rain during a key month last year, combined with the fact last year was a large crop, placed stress on the trees, which he believes will impact this year's production. In addition, there were problems with aphids, an insect pest.
"It's a different opinion," he said.
Archer said he also trims trees to keep production from varying greatly from year to year.
Arnold said August is a key time in the growing season. That's when pecan trees tend to shed a percentage of nuts and grow those that remain. He said the crop will benefit from occasional rainfall - too much standing water starves the roots of oxygen - and temperatures that don't skyrocket.
"Particularly in the month of August, you don't want to stress the trees," he said.
Arnold said growers are "cautiously optimistic," but noted that, while conditions look good now, the unpredictable nature of farming can always change things before the harvest.
"Until you get the money in the bank, you really don't know where you're sitting," he said.
Diana M. Alba can be reached at (575) 541-5443
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